Results
Postseason odds
Odds from 100,000 simulated seasons, each played through to a champion.
Playoff field named
8 / 12
top 12 by preseason playoff odds
Brier score, playoff odds
0.173
0.240 for “40% for everyone”
World Series
MIL 3–1
vs TB, in progress after October 27, 2026
Preseason title favourite
MIL
10.0% to win it all
Every series
Each game priced with the frozen preseason ratings. The favourite won 22 of 39 postseason games (56.4%).
| Round | Series | Result | Preseason P(winner) | Fav. won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Series | Brewers vs Rays | 3–1(ongoing) | 57% | 3 / 4 |
| Championship Series | Brewers def. Dodgers | 4–0 | 51% | 2 / 4 |
| Championship Series | Rays def. Guardians | 4–2 | 47% | 3 / 6 |
| Division Series | Dodgers def. Braves | 3–1 | 55% | 3 / 4 |
| Division Series | Guardians def. White Sox | 3–2 | 58% | 3 / 5 |
| Division Series | Brewers def. Padres | 3–1 | 53% | 3 / 4 |
| Division Series | Rays def. Yankees | 3–0 | 45% | 0 / 3 |
| Wild Card | Padres def. Cubs | 2–0 | 53% | 2 / 2 |
| Wild Card | Braves def. Phillies | 2–1 | 49% | 1 / 3 |
| Wild Card | White Sox def. Astros | 2–0 | 40% | 0 / 2 |
| Wild Card | Yankees def. Red Sox | 2–0 | 55% | 2 / 2 |
Were the playoff odds honest?
If the odds are honest, each group’s “made it” share should roughly match its forecast. Small groups — a sanity check, not proof.
| Preseason odds | Teams | Mean forecast | Made it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% or more | 4 | 75% | 4 (100%) |
| 40–70% | 9 | 55% | 5 (56%) |
| 15–40% | 12 | 31% | 2 (17%) |
| under 15% | 5 | 7% | 1 (20%) |
Every team
| Team | Playoffs | Division | Bye | Pennant | Title | 2026 outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee BrewersNL | 76% | 49% | 38% | 18% | 10.0% | In World Series |
| Los Angeles DodgersNL | 75% | 48% | 36% | 16% | 8.9% | Made playoffs |
| New York YankeesAL | 74% | 39% | 34% | 17% | 9.2% | Made playoffs |
| Philadelphia PhilliesNL | 73% | 53% | 34% | 15% | 8.3% | Made playoffs |
| Seattle MarinersAL | 64% | 41% | 29% | 13% | 6.4% | Missed |
| Boston Red SoxAL | 61% | 24% | 20% | 12% | 5.8% | Made playoffs |
| Toronto Blue JaysAL | 61% | 24% | 20% | 11% | 5.8% | Missed |
| Chicago CubsNL | 60% | 27% | 20% | 10% | 5.5% | Made playoffs |
| San Diego PadresNL | 58% | 27% | 19% | 9% | 4.8% | Made playoffs |
| Cleveland GuardiansAL | 55% | 38% | 21% | 9% | 4.3% | Made playoffs |
| Kansas City RoyalsAL | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3.3% | Missed |
| Texas RangersAL | 47% | 24% | 15% | 7% | 3.3% | Missed |
| Houston AstrosAL | 44% | 21% | 14% | 6% | 2.8% | Made playoffs |
| Cincinnati RedsNL | 40% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 2.5% | Missed |
| New York MetsNL | 40% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2.4% | Missed |
| Atlanta BravesNL | 39% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 2.4% | Made playoffs |
| Arizona DiamondbacksNL | 38% | 14% | 8% | 5% | 2.3% | Missed |
| Detroit TigersAL | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2.0% | Missed |
| San Francisco GiantsNL | 34% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 1.9% | Missed |
| Tampa Bay RaysAL | 29% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 1.6% | In World Series |
| AthleticsAL | 28% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1.4% | Missed |
| Miami MarlinsNL | 24% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1.2% | Missed |
| Baltimore OriolesAL | 23% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1.1% | Missed |
| Pittsburgh PiratesNL | 21% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1.0% | Missed |
| St. Louis CardinalsNL | 16% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0.7% | Missed |
| Minnesota TwinsAL | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0.5% | Missed |
| Chicago White SoxAL | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | Made playoffs |
| Los Angeles AngelsAL | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0.2% | Missed |
| Washington NationalsNL | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 0.1% | Missed |
| Colorado RockiesNL | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 0.0% | Missed |