Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL West

Colorado Rockies

Projected 30th of 30 · finished 30th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
57.9
80% interval 46–70
Actual record
58–104
run differential −192
Preseason playoff odds
<1%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
0.0%
division <1% · pennant <1%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%30405060708090Winsmean 57.9actual 58
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +6.4 after game 124.

See all Rockies games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1402 — a 36.2% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 36.3%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202174–87739796.465
202268–94698873.394
202359–103721957.365
202461–101682929.355
202543–1195971021.261
2026 (graded)58–104752944—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.