Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected 2nd of 30 · finished 2nd · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
91.2
80% interval 79–104
Actual record
100–62
run differential +201
Preseason playoff odds
75%
Won the division
Preseason title odds
8.9%
division 48% · pennant 16%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110120Winsmean 91.2actual 100
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +8.6 after game 162.

See all Dodgers games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1540 — a 55.8% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 55.3%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
2021106–56830561.674
2022111–51847513.716
2023100–62906699.623
202498–64842686.596
202593–69825683.589
2026 (graded)100–62801600—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.