Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL Central

Cleveland Guardians

Projected 10th of 30 · finished 11th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
84.7
80% interval 72–97
Actual record
85–77
run differential +11
Preseason playoff odds
55%
Won the division
Preseason title odds
4.3%
division 38% · pennant 9%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110Winsmean 84.7actual 85
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −4.9 after game 127.

See all Guardians games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1513 — a 51.9% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 50.9%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202180–82717727.493
202292–70698634.544
202376–86662697.476
202492–69708621.560
202588–74643649.496
2026 (graded)85–77678667—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.