Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL Central

Kansas City Royals

Projected 11th of 30 · finished 26th · outside its 80% range

Projected wins
83.2
80% interval 70–96
Actual record
69–93
run differential −120
Preseason playoff odds
48%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
3.3%
division 30% · pennant 7%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 83.2actual 69
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-100+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −14.7 after game 161.

See all Royals games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1506 — a 50.9% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 50.7%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202174–88686788.435
202265–97640810.391
202356–106676859.388
202486–76735644.561
202582–80651637.510
2026 (graded)69–93690810—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.