Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

Projected 27th of 30 · finished 12th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
71.2
80% interval 59–84
Actual record
84–78
run differential +56
Preseason playoff odds
10%
Made the playoffs
Preseason title odds
0.3%
division 4% · pennant 1%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%405060708090100Winsmean 71.2actual 84
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +13.4 after game 135.

See all White Sox games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1458 — a 44.0% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 43.8%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202193–69796636.603
202281–81686717.479
202361–101641841.375
202441–121507813.297
202560–102647742.437
2026 (graded)84–78776720—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.