Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Projected 25th of 30 · finished 20th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
75.5
80% interval 63–88
Actual record
77–85
run differential −29
Preseason playoff odds
16%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
0.7%
division 4% · pennant 1%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100Winsmean 75.5actual 77
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +7.2 after game 86.

See all Cardinals games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1480 — a 47.1% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 47.9%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202190–72706672.523
202293–69772637.589
202371–91719829.432
202483–79672719.469
202578–84689754.458
2026 (graded)77–85720749—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.