Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers

Projected 1st of 30 · finished 1st · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
91.6
80% interval 79–104
Actual record
103–59
run differential +214
Preseason playoff odds
76%
Won the pennant
Preseason title odds
10.0%
division 49% · pennant 18%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110120Winsmean 91.6actual 103
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +11.2 after game 162.

See all Brewers games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1545 — a 56.5% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 56.3%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202195–67738623.577
202286–76725688.524
202392–70728647.554
202493–69777641.589
202597–65806634.611
2026 (graded)103–59832618—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.