Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL Central

Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected 23rd of 30 · finished 13th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
77.5
80% interval 65–90
Actual record
82–80
run differential +28
Preseason playoff odds
21%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
1.0%
division 6% · pennant 2%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 77.5actual 82
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +5.0 after game 157.

See all Pirates games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1488 — a 48.2% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 46.9%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202161–101609833.357
202262–100591817.354
202376–86692790.438
202476–86665739.451
202571–91583645.455
2026 (graded)82–80767739—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.