Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL West

Athletics

Projected 21st of 30 · finished 28th · outside its 80% range

Projected wins
78.8
80% interval 66–91
Actual record
64–98
run differential −238
Preseason playoff odds
28%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
1.4%
division 12% · pennant 3%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 78.8actual 64
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-100+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −14.8 after game 139.

See all Athletics games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1491 — a 48.6% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 46.7%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202186–76743687.536
202260–102568770.364
202350–112585924.296
202469–93643764.420
202576–86733817.448
2026 (graded)64–98699937—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.