Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL West

Seattle Mariners

Projected 5th of 30 · finished 23rd · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
87.4
80% interval 75–100
Actual record
76–86
run differential −58
Preseason playoff odds
64%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
6.4%
division 41% · pennant 13%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%60708090100110Winsmean 87.4actual 76
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −12.2 after game 160.

See all Mariners games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1526 — a 53.7% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 52.9%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202190–72697748.467
202290–72690623.546
202388–74758659.565
202485–77676607.549
202590–72766694.546
2026 (graded)76–86664722—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.