Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

AL West

Houston Astros

Projected 13th of 30 · finished 14th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
82.6
80% interval 70–95
Actual record
81–81
run differential −32
Preseason playoff odds
44%
Won the division
Preseason title odds
2.8%
division 21% · pennant 6%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 82.6actual 81
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −6.2 after game 51.

See all Astros games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1504 — a 50.6% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 51.6%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202195–67863658.626
2022106–56737518.653
202390–72827698.580
202488–73740649.561
202587–75686665.514
2026 (graded)81–81734766—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.