Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL East

Miami Marlins

Projected 22nd of 30 · finished 16th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
78.3
80% interval 66–91
Actual record
80–82
run differential +3
Preseason playoff odds
24%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
1.2%
division 9% · pennant 3%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 78.3actual 80
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-50+504081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +5.7 after game 94.

See all Marlins games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1488 — a 48.3% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 46.7%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202167–95623701.446
202269–93586676.436
202384–78666723.462
202462–100637841.372
202579–83709798.444
2026 (graded)80–82715712—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.