Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Projected 17th of 30 · finished 4th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
82.1
80% interval 69–95
Actual record
94–68
run differential +116
Preseason playoff odds
39%
Won the division
Preseason title odds
2.4%
division 18% · pennant 5%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 82.1actual 94
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: +13.0 after game 156.

See all Braves games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1505 — a 50.6% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 49.9%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202188–73790656.586
2022101–61789609.618
2023104–58947716.633
202489–73704607.567
202576–86724734.494
2026 (graded)94–68742626—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.