Forecasting the 2026 MLB Season

NL East

New York Mets

Projected 15th of 30 · finished 25th · inside its 80% range

Projected wins
82.3
80% interval 70–95
Actual record
74–88
run differential −32
Preseason playoff odds
40%
Missed the playoffs
Preseason title odds
2.4%
division 18% · pennant 5%

1The range of seasons the model expected

Simulated seasonsActual wins
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%5060708090100110Winsmean 82.3actual 74
Figure 1. Win totals across 100,000 simulated seasons. Dark bars = 80% range.

2How the season unfolded against it

-10-50+5+1004081120162Games played
Figure 2. Actual minus expected wins, game by game. Above zero = beating the forecast. Peak: −10.6 after game 113.

See all Mets games with their probabilities →

3Where the rating came from

  • Elo entering 2026: 1505 — a 50.8% chance to beat an average team.
  • Team Marcel (the runner-up model): 51.7%.
SeasonW–LRuns scoredRuns allowedPythagorean W%
202177–85636668.478
2022101–61772606.610
202375–87717729.492
202489–73768697.545
202583–79766715.532
2026 (graded)74–88699731—
Table 1. Seasons the forecast could see. Pythagorean W% = record expected from runs.